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Thứ Tư, 7 tháng 12, 2011

Tại sao đầu tư sẽ không ồ ạt đổ vào Việt Nam?

Tại sao đầu tư sẽ không ồ ạt đổ vào Việt Nam?

Bruce Gale

Will Thailand's floods be Vietnam's gain'
That certainly appears to be the view of Ho Chi Minh City's Gon Tiep Thi newspaper, which recently published a report saying that many Japanese firms are considering moving their Thai operations to Vietnam.
Some local consultancies in Vietnam agree. According to investment consultancy Sao Khue's chairman Than Thanh Vu: 'Many Japanese business delegations have visited Ho Chi Minh City or contacted the Japan External Trade Organisation to ask for locations to build their facilities. Their top priority when consulting about a particular location is whether the place will be affected by floods.'


If true, such a trend would mark an important turnaround for Vietnam, which has recently been experiencing a decline in foreign investor interest. Once regarded as the next 'Asian Tiger', sentiment on Vietnam has turned increasingly negative in recent years as deep seated problems such as corruption and infrastructure bottlenecks have become more pronounced.Vietnam attracted US$9.9 billion (S$12.7 billion) in new projects in the first nine months of this year, down 16 per cent from the same period last year.
Thang Long Industrial Park, which was built just outside Hanoi by Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo, aptly illustrates the change. Opened in 2000, it was full by 2009, with the mostly Japanese manufacturing companies operating in the park employing around 55,000 workers. Today, however, the park is viewed rather less positively. High inflation has led to strikes by workers demanding wage increases, something that companies operating on thin margins in the park have been reluctant to grant.
But will the recent floods in Thailand, coupled with higher costs in China, really turn things around for the country?
Some investors seem to think so. Japan's Jesco Holding Inc, which specialises in engineering and infrastructure construction, recently announced a joint venture with Hoa Binh Construction & Real Estate Corporation to develop infrastructure for an industrial park in the southern province of Long An. The Japan International Cooperation Agency is also offering funds to help Vietnamese industrial parks upgrade infrastructure to meet the requirements of Japanese investors.
But while many foreign direct investors may indeed be reassessing their strategies, Vietnam is not necessarily the most likely beneficiary.
Take Thailand's large automobile industry. Reports say that several companies operating in Thailand such as Honda and Nissan were forced to suspend production because of the floods.
But Vietnam is hardly the most attractive alternative. The country's domestic automobile market is too small to be of much interest to major players with the means to set up the large-scale operations capable of competing with foreign imports. Moreover, trade agreements with other Asean nations will force Hanoi to slash import tariffs on CBU (completely built units) cars by 50 per cent in 2014. At that time, the foreign automobile assemblers that set up factories in Vietnam during better times will probably begin to move out.
Indonesia, with its huge domestic market and robust economy, is their most likely destination. In recent months, both Toyota and Nissan have announced major new investments in the latter country.
Instead of hoping for windfall gains as a result of calamities in other countries, Vietnam would be better off focusing on getting the basics right. With inflation on a downward trend and exports picking up, there is some evidence that macroeconomic conditions are about to stabilise.
But much more remains to be done. A recent survey of 1,000 enterprises by the government-funded Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs found that the shortage of skilled workers was a major obstacle discouraging investors from upgrading or expanding their factories. There was also a general lack of management skills.
Commenting on the results, the country's Korea Chamber of Commerce chairman Lee Chon Kin put it bluntly: 'We want to bring modern machinery to Vietnam but cannot recruit a sufficient number of technicians (who) can operate them.'
Investors are also increasingly citing infrastructure deficiencies. Yet it seems that many in government are not listening. In June this year, for example, the authorities announced that golf courses would be built on unused land assigned to the nation's major airports in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
Ho Chi Minh City's Tan Son Nhat Airport is the biggest and most important airport in Vietnam. The news that this airport, which is already overcrowded, is to be denied space for expansion, is hardly the sort of thing likely to encourage confidence that the authorities have got their priorities right.
With inflation falling, investors operating in the new industrial parks currently under construction may be able to avoid the labour unrest that has plagued Thang Long this year. But without a major effort to upgrade manpower skills and improve the nation's infrastructure, it will be an uphill battle convincing investors to enter the country with the same enthusiasm that they had in earlier years.

-Nguồn:Tại sao đầu tư sẽ không ồ ạt đổ vào Việt Nam?  Why Vietnam won't see flood of investments (Straits Times 7-12-11) --  Tham nhũng, cơ sở hạ tầng yếu kém, thị trường nhỏ hẹp... 


Vietnam embarks on banking reform (FT 7-12-11) 
With fears growing about the stability of the Vietnamese banking sector after years of rapid credit growth, the government has finally moved to begin restructuring some of the smaller, weaker banks.
Hanoi has often failed to match rhetoric on economic reform with action so investors have welcomed this first step on what is likely to be a long and bumpy road.
Nguyen Van Binh, governor of the central bank, said on Tuesday that after facing short-term liquidity problems, three small, unlisted Ho Chi Minh City-based banks would be merged into a new entity guided by the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, a large state-owned lender.
He said the government would guarantee deposits at the three banks – First Joint-Stock Commercial Bank, the Tin Nghia Joint-Stock Commercial Bank and the Sai Gon Joint-Stock Commercial Bank. The trio got into trouble, like many other lenders around the world, by borrowing short to lend long.
Binh also indicated that the state would take a stake in the new bank, the size of which would be determined at a later date, and that the central bank would continue to push ahead with the restructuring process.
Rumours about liquidity problems at small lenders have been flying around for months after the central bank began hiking interest rates and restricting credit growth to try to control Vietnam’s surging inflation rate, currently 19.8 per cent a year.
Mark Young, a Singapore-based managing director at Fitch, the credit rating agency, said the merger was “a positive step towards strengthening the banking system”.
He wrote:
The fact that these banks are being merged as a result of liquidity problems does, however, highlight the pressures being faced by the banking system as a whole.
Macro policies such as the deposit interest rate ceiling to bring down persistently high inflation have partly contributed to these pressures. Banks, and in particular smaller institutions, have increasingly relied on short-term price-sensitive funding and other inter-bank funding to support growth, increasing the liquidity risks.
This comes on top of the risks attached to rapid loan growth and asset quality issues already highlighted by Fitch, raising concerns at the adequacy of capitalisation.
While there were some suggestions in the Vietnamese press that the government would look to clean up the merged bank and sell it to the private sector or even foreign investors, bankers warned that the restructuring process was likely to be long and drawn out.
Despite the ongoing difficulties, Young said Vietnam’s banking sector remained an “interesting potential growth story for international investors”.
Japan’s Mizuho bought a 15 per cent stake in Vietcombank, a large state-owned lender, for $567m in September.
The next test of foreign investor appetite will be the upcoming IPO of BIDV, which is currently looking for a strategic foreign investor with the assistance of Morgan Stanley.


VN ra tay ‘tái cấu trúc ngân hàng’  —  (BBC).  –  Quản trị ngân hàng: Làm chuồng rồi mới mua bò (VOV). - Tăng thanh khoản, tránh đóng băng thị trường BĐS (NLĐ). – Làn sóng bán tháo bất động sản (PLTP). - Chi phí xây nhà thu nhập thấp : Kiến nghị miễn thuế (Stockbiz).- - Vàng không phải SJC bán chậm (TBKTSG). - Cho vay vốn mua vàng sản xuất vàng trang sức, mỹ nghệ (TN). - Cho vay vốn mua vàng để sản xuất vàng trang sức, mỹ nghệ (NLĐ).- Sáp nhập, hợp nhất: Khôn thì nên làm sớm (NDHMoney).- Giang Lê: Chỉ có trẻ con mới tin lời ông Tuấn – (Blog KTTC). - ông Trần Minh Tuấn, Phó thống đốc Ngân hàng Nhà nước VN, đã nói gì: “Ba ngân hàng hợp nhất sẽ thừa năng lực về thanh khoản” (VnEconomy).  - “Không khất, hoãn, giãn nợ nếu dân đến rút tiền” (VnEconomy).
Quá sớm để hạ lãi suất huy động (VEF). - Việt Nam được quốc tế cam kết hỗ trợ gần 7,4 tỷ đô la  —  (VOA)
.-Kiều hối “đổ” về Việt Nam ngày một tăng (Bayvut 7-12-11) - 
Nửa số vụ tham nhũng 'dính' cán bộ ngân hàng (VnEx 7-12-11)-
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-  Vietnam Risks Stability If Policy Eased, IMF, World Bank Say (Bloomberg). VN sẽ nhận 7.39 tỷ đôla vốn ODA - (BBC) -Các nhà tài trợ quốc tế cam kết hỗ trợ Việt Nam 7,39 tỷ USD vốn ODA, thúc giục chính phủ tái cấu trúc kinh tế và cải thiện nhân quyền. -'Nghèo mà tham ô ODA, sẽ chẳng ai đầu tư' "Nếu Việt Nam chứng tỏ mình có thể sử dụng ODA hiệu quả, đúng mục đích, giải ngân đúng tiến độ, các nhà tài trợ quốc tế sẽ tin tưởng và tiếp tục hỗ trợ", Bộ trưởng KH-ĐT nói.
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-Bauxite Tân Rai chậm tiến độ vì mưa - (BBC)-Tập đoàn Vinacomin cho hay nhà máy Tân Rai trị giá gần 500 triệu đôla hoãn tiến độ sản xuất nhôm vì bị mưa lớn.
Chuyện lỗ lãi của Petrolimex: Đã thật sự rõ? (DT).  – Lỗ, lãi xăng dầu: càng giải thích càng khó hiểu(TN). - Bỏ quên người tiêu dùng (TN).Bộ Công Thương lại lên tiếng về lỗ, lãi của Petrolimex - Petrolimex phản ứng kết luận của Bộ Tài chính
-Khởi động làn sóng mới cổ phần hóa DNNN (PLTP). -- VN có nguy cơ phải nhập khẩu năng lượng (PLTP). – 2012 Việt Nam vẫn phải nhập nhiều mặt hàng thiết yếu (VnEconomy).

-Bad news BRICs: 10 years on, which country is the most overhyped? (FP 6-12-11)-


-Liên hiệp châu Âu cắt viện trợ phát triển cho các nước đang vươn lên  —  (RFI).

-Endangered Dragon: Entrepreneur’s Rival in China: The State NYT -Private companies have been the prime engine of China’s economic miracle, and economists warn that the Chinese government’s eagerness to control more of that wealth could stifle innovation.
--Doanh nghiệp Trung Quốc phát đạt tại Miến Điện nhưng dân Miến Điện lo ngại - VOA - Ngôi chùa Qing Fu Gong do người Hoa xây dựng ở Rangoon năm nay kỷ niệm 150 năm và không khi nào thiếu người tới lễ. Dòng người Hoa đều đặn tiến vào ngôi chùa này, thắp hương và cầu xin được khỏe mạnh và thành công. Một phụ nữ lắc ống xin xâm trước bàn thờ sơn son thiếp vàng. Đã từ lâu, ngôi chùa này là biểu tượng của cộng đồng người Hoa ở Rangoon, từ nhiều thế kỷ nay đã tham gia giao dịch thương mại giữa hai nước.

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