Việt Nam: Hạn chế nhập khẩu
ảnh hưởng tới doanh số hàng xa xỉ
Ben Bland, Hà NộiNgày 7-6-2011
Như bất kỳ công ty bán hàng xa xỉ nào ở nước Việt Nam cộng sản, HTC Auto, một đơn vị mua bán xe hơi, đã cường thịnh trong những năm gần đây khi tốc độ phát triển kinh tế kích thích tạo ra một tầng lớp người tiêu dùng giàu có, ý thức được về chỗ đứng của mình, và muốn nắm bắt đủ thứ từ iPhone đến Roll-Royce.
Nhưng những hạn chế mới đối với việc nhập khẩu một số hàng hóa xa xỉ – mà các doanh nhân cho đó là một nỗ lực sai lầm nhằm kiềm chế thâm hụt thương mại quá lớn của Việt Nam và nhằm kiểm soát tỷ lệ lạm phát cao nhất châu Á – sẽ làm cho HTC và các đối tác của họ gặp rất nhiều khó khăn.
“Nhiều salon ô-tô sẽ phải đóng cửa, và chúng tôi sẽ buộc phải chuyển sang mua bán xe cũ (second-hand)” – ông Bùi Đức Cảnh, tổng giám đốc của HTC Auto (trụ sở tại Hà Nội), nói. HTC Auto hiện đang rao bán trên website của mình một xe Bentley Continental Flying Spur giá 460.000 USD, cùng với những xe khác giá cả tương đối chấp nhận được.
Thâm hụt thương mại khủng khiếp của Việt Nam, một trong những thành tố làm lung lay niềm tin của mọi người vào nền kinh tế, đã tăng tới 1,7 tỷ USD vào tháng 5 – mức cao nhất trong suốt 17 tháng qua.
Chỉ ba tháng sau khi công bố gói biện pháp ổn định nền kinh tế, chính phủ đã tuyên cáo các hạn chế mới đối với việc nhập khẩu xe hơi, điện thoại di động, mỹ phẩm, rượu cồn và rượu vang.
Giới chức cho hay những hạn chế đó sẽ làm giảm thâm hụt thương mại của Việt Nam và bảo vệ người tiêu dùng trước hàng nhập khẩu giả và kém chất lượng. Tuy nhiên, doanh nhân và giới ngoại giao thì cho là nỗ lực kiềm chế nhập khẩu này tiềm ẩn khả năng vi phạm các quy định về mậu dịch quốc tế.
Việc hạn chế nhập khẩu sẽ làm gia tăng chi phí cho các doanh nghiệp, và nó cho thấy động lực mở cửa nền kinh tế của Việt Nam hai thập kỷ qua đang bị trì hoãn, vào thời điểm mà đất nước phụ thuộc vào xuất khẩu này đang phải cố gắng đàm phán hiệp định thương mại tự do với EU và Mỹ.
Tháng trước EU đã viết thư cho ông Vũ Huy Hoàng, bộ trưởng thương mại Việt Nam, cảnh báo ông rằng các hạn chế sẽ “gây gián đoạn đáng kể trong việc xuất khẩu của chúng tôi và gây thua lỗ lớn về thương mại cho các nhà xuất khẩu của EU, trong những lĩnh vực hàng hóa trị giá tới hàng triệu euro này” – và họ kêu gọi hoãn ba tháng.
EU nói rằng bước hạn chế mới đây nhất trong một loạt hạn chế nhập khẩu “gây lo ngại nghiêm trọng” về việc Việt Nam liệu có muốn tuân thủ các quy định của Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới (WTO) hay không, và “xa lạ với ước muốn chung của chúng tôi là tham gia đàm phán hiệp định thương mại tự do” – những người đã đọc lá thư nói vậy.
Ông Hoàng, bộ trưởng thương mại, phát biểu hôm thứ hai rằng các biện pháp hạn chế là “cần thiết” để làm giảm thâm hụt thương mại, kiềm chế lạm phát và góp phần ổn định kinh tế. Ông bác bỏ ý kiến cho rằng Việt Nam đã vi phạm các cam kết với WTO.
Một biện pháp đã được thi hành vào tuần trước, giới hạn việc nhập khẩu điện thoại di động, mỹ phẩm, rượu vang và đồ uống có cồn ở ba cảng biển theo chỉ định là Hải Phòng, TP.HCM và Đà Nẵng; và yêu cầu các nhà nhập khẩu phải nhận được thư cho phép do cơ quan ngoại giao Việt Nam ở nước ngoài chứng nhận.
Biện pháp tương tự sẽ tác động mạnh tới ngành công nghiệp ô-tô vào ngày 26-6 tới, theo đó, tất cả các đơn vị kinh doanh xe mới đều phải chứng minh rằng họ là nhà phân phối được ủy quyền chính thức. Đây là nhiệm vụ bất khả thi cho vài nghìn nhà bán lẻ độc lập như HTC, thường họ nhập xe từ tầng lớp trung lưu ở các nơi như Dubai.
Bên cạnh những người kinh doanh xe độc lập, các nhà nhập khẩu khác cũng đối diện với một cuộc chiến đấu ngược dốc, để có thể tuân thủ các quy định. Nokia, thống trị thị trường điện thoại di động ở Việt Nam, bán được 1 triệu thiết bị cầm tay (handset) một năm, và vừa phải mất mấy tuần tái thiết kế dây chuyền sản xuất phức hợp của họ.
Trước kia điện thoại của Nokia đến Việt Nam thông qua đường bộ và đường hàng không, nhưng bây giờ họ đang chuyển sang sử dụng các cảng biển được chỉ định. “Sẽ có ảnh hưởng đối với tiến độ và chi phí, nhưng trên tổng thế chúng tôi đều điều chỉnh được hệ thống logistics của mình” – ông William Hamilton-Whyte, tổng giám đốc Nokia’s ở Đông Dương, cho biết.
Khi mà khối thâm hụt thương mại khổng lồ của Việt Nam là hậu quả của việc mua bán với Trung Quốc – đất nước nhập khẩu nguyên liệu thô như dầu thô và cao su từ Việt Nam và xuất khẩu trở lại những sản phẩm như xăng dầu và đồ điện tử; thì các nhà quan sát bên ngoài đều phải tự hỏi liệu các lệnh hạn chế mới sẽ có ảnh hưởng đáng kể nào không.
Ngược lại, giới đầu tư ngoại quốc sợ rằng nếu không làm gì để giữ cho nền kinh tế Việt Nam công bằng lại, thì việc hạn chế nhập khẩu có thể làm tăng vọt nạn buôn lậu và tham nhũng ở cửa khẩu – mà bây giờ vốn đã là bệnh dịch.
“Chính phủ sử dụng hàng xa xỉ như là con dê tế thần để dâng cho những đối thủ kinh tế của họ” – ông Jim Cawood, tổng giám đốc Vino, công ty phân phối rượu vang ở TP.HCM, cho biết. “Đó là một mục tiêu dễ dàng. bởi vì họ có thể đổ lỗi cho những người giàu có”.
Người dịch: Đỗ Quyên
Bản tiếng Việt © Ba Sàm 2011
Lưu ý: Tên bài báo gốc ở ngay trên đầu bài dịch, bà con nào cần đọc xin bấm vào. Có một số bài phải đăng ký mới truy cập được thì BS sẽ đưa bài gốc phía dưới đây, như bài này.
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Vietnam: towards a new horizon
By Ben BlandPublished: June 7 2011 17:03 | Last updated: June 7 2011 17:03
The 40-year-old chairman of the company wants Trung Nguyen, which produces and exports coffee and runs a well-established café franchise, to become the world’s leading coffee brand. However, like other Vietnamese entrepreneurs who are keen to expand their business, he is suffering from a distinct lack of qualified senior managers.
“In a developing country such as Vietnam, the labour market cannot
supply the appropriate leadership and senior management for a
fast-growing company like this,” he explains from his office in Ho Chi
Minh City. “One of the key reasons we established our international
office in Singapore was to help us source international-standard
management.”
A shortage of well-qualified managers and technicians is just one of many challenges for investors in a frontier market such as Vietnam.
It has been growing rapidly over the past two decades, as the country has moved from Soviet-style central planning to a more market-orientated system. Persistent macroeconomic instability, poor infrastructure and widespread corruption also make this a tough place in which to do business.
The economic climate is difficult in the short term, with high inflation, large trade and budget deficits, as well as financial problems at state-owned enterprises continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
The government has unveiled a package of fiscal and monetary tightening measures designed to stabilise the economy. If it can stay the course and drive through much-needed reforms to the bloated state sector, most analysts expect the economy to carry on growing solidly over the next few years, if perhaps not at the rate of 7 per cent and more that it achieved before the global financial crisis.
With a young population, favourable geography (Vietnam hopes to act as a “bridge” between China and the rest of south-east Asia) and one of the fastest-growing middle classes on the continent, the country has significant potential for tenacious investors with a long-term game plan.
The ebullient Mr Vu is one such investor, hoping to double revenues at Trung Nguyen this year, despite the economic turbulence.
“We’re now in the middle of an economic crisis, but we predicted this three years ago,” he says. With commercial lending rates having risen above 20 per cent a year following big interest rate increases by the under-pressure central bank, the company has already secured the necessary short-term funding, he adds.
Like other consumer-focused companies, Trung Nguyen has profited from the rapid expansion of the Vietnamese middle class, which is one of the fastest growing in Asia, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Pham Nguyen Foods, a family-owned business that makes cakes and snacks, has also been thriving on the back of increasing levels of disposable income. Having started life as a family outfit 20 years ago, Pham Nguyen now employs 1,100 people, generates domestic revenue of $25m and sells 350m packets a year of its trademark Phaner Pie, a marshmallow-filled bun with a chocolate coating. And it is still growing fast, according to Christian Leitzinger, a former investment banker who was recently appointed as the company’s chief operating officer.
When the founding family’s second generation took over the business, they decided to revamp the recruitment policy, bringing in a number of experienced foreigners and locals to key positions.
As a result, sales jumped 40 per cent in six months and exports doubled in just one quarter to 15 per cent of total revenue, says Mr Leitzinger.
While a number of Vietnamese consumer companies have built recognisable domestic brands, many struggle to succeed when they expand overseas.
“Local companies wishing to grow their export revenues need to invest heavily in marketing, strategy, packaging and language skills,” says Mr Leitzinger. They also need to be adaptable.
Pham Nguyen, for example, developed a new, vegan chocolate pie, which was very difficult to produce, in order to boost its chances of success in India.
In an economy that is still dominated by a clunky state-owned sector that gets favourable access to credit, land and licences, nimble, privately owned companies tend to stand out.
There are only a handful of listed, “blue-chip” companies of the sort that might get a second look from foreign investors. Vinamilk, the dominant milk producer, Kinh Do, a confectionery maker, Masan Group, a conglomerate that does everything from producing fish sauce to mining tungsten, and Hoang Anh Gia Lai, a property developer that recently completed a secondary listing in London, are among the best-run companies, say local fund managers.
Vietnam moved up 10 places in the World Bank’s 2011 global ranking on the ease of doing business – to 78th out of 183 economies. But levels of transparency and disclosure still trail behind developed markets, particularly outside the top few listed companies.
The International Finance Corporation, the private sector development arm of the World Bank, concluded in its most recent review that “corporate governance in Vietnam is at the rudimentary stage and ripe for improvement”. The IFC noted that “corporate governance practice in Vietnamese companies is more driven by compliance with regulatory requirements than commitment to a higher practice of sound governance”.
As in many Asian countries, corporate culture is based on personal relationships. It is not always easy for businesses, especially those backed by foreign investors, to maintain good relations with local and central government officials, who are steeped in the secretive ways of the ruling Communist party. But it is a prerequisite for success in this one-party state.
“It is challenging to establish relationships that work within a system that is still in its infancy,” says Anthony Jolly, director of Midway Metals, which makes export-quality stainless steel for yachts and kitchen fittings at a factory 30 miles south of Hanoi.
As a foreign investor, you may find it easier if you go it alone to ensure that your business is run properly and quality standards are upheld, he says. “But if you have no local connections or relationships, your progress will be stifled.”
Six years after it set up in Vietnam, Midway employs 90 people. Mr Jolly hopes to increase turnover to $5m in 2012, up from $2.5m this year.
The secret of his success is his wife, he says. “She is Vietnamese and she has been in the business with me from the start. If you do not have Vietnamese eyes, your investment will probably be down by 30 per cent from the beginning.”
With a fast-growing domestic market and a cheap labour force – average factory workers’ wages of about $100 a month are around a third of the level in southern China – other small and medium-sized businesses are looking for opportunities here.
But Mr Jolly urges them to be careful. “If you are an SME wanting to invest, you have to do a huge amount of due diligence because there is a lot of murky water and it can be hard to figure out what is going on,” he says. “My advice is to consult experienced expatriates who have been here for more than 10 years.”
Mr Leitzinger agrees that those who simply move western executives with little regional experience into the country and try to apply models from abroad will probably fail. “Foreigners cannot come in here and expect to be as effective and get the same return on investment as they would elsewhere,” he says.
Likewise, local companies looking to go global need a more international perspective, says Mr Vu, who has brought in Bain & Co, the global management consultancy, to help him achieve his grand vision for Trung Nguyen. “It is critical to choose partners who share your vision and philosophy and will stick with you for the long term,” he says.
A shortage of well-qualified managers and technicians is just one of many challenges for investors in a frontier market such as Vietnam.
It has been growing rapidly over the past two decades, as the country has moved from Soviet-style central planning to a more market-orientated system. Persistent macroeconomic instability, poor infrastructure and widespread corruption also make this a tough place in which to do business.
The economic climate is difficult in the short term, with high inflation, large trade and budget deficits, as well as financial problems at state-owned enterprises continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
The government has unveiled a package of fiscal and monetary tightening measures designed to stabilise the economy. If it can stay the course and drive through much-needed reforms to the bloated state sector, most analysts expect the economy to carry on growing solidly over the next few years, if perhaps not at the rate of 7 per cent and more that it achieved before the global financial crisis.
With a young population, favourable geography (Vietnam hopes to act as a “bridge” between China and the rest of south-east Asia) and one of the fastest-growing middle classes on the continent, the country has significant potential for tenacious investors with a long-term game plan.
The ebullient Mr Vu is one such investor, hoping to double revenues at Trung Nguyen this year, despite the economic turbulence.
“We’re now in the middle of an economic crisis, but we predicted this three years ago,” he says. With commercial lending rates having risen above 20 per cent a year following big interest rate increases by the under-pressure central bank, the company has already secured the necessary short-term funding, he adds.
Like other consumer-focused companies, Trung Nguyen has profited from the rapid expansion of the Vietnamese middle class, which is one of the fastest growing in Asia, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Pham Nguyen Foods, a family-owned business that makes cakes and snacks, has also been thriving on the back of increasing levels of disposable income. Having started life as a family outfit 20 years ago, Pham Nguyen now employs 1,100 people, generates domestic revenue of $25m and sells 350m packets a year of its trademark Phaner Pie, a marshmallow-filled bun with a chocolate coating. And it is still growing fast, according to Christian Leitzinger, a former investment banker who was recently appointed as the company’s chief operating officer.
When the founding family’s second generation took over the business, they decided to revamp the recruitment policy, bringing in a number of experienced foreigners and locals to key positions.
As a result, sales jumped 40 per cent in six months and exports doubled in just one quarter to 15 per cent of total revenue, says Mr Leitzinger.
While a number of Vietnamese consumer companies have built recognisable domestic brands, many struggle to succeed when they expand overseas.
“Local companies wishing to grow their export revenues need to invest heavily in marketing, strategy, packaging and language skills,” says Mr Leitzinger. They also need to be adaptable.
Pham Nguyen, for example, developed a new, vegan chocolate pie, which was very difficult to produce, in order to boost its chances of success in India.
In an economy that is still dominated by a clunky state-owned sector that gets favourable access to credit, land and licences, nimble, privately owned companies tend to stand out.
There are only a handful of listed, “blue-chip” companies of the sort that might get a second look from foreign investors. Vinamilk, the dominant milk producer, Kinh Do, a confectionery maker, Masan Group, a conglomerate that does everything from producing fish sauce to mining tungsten, and Hoang Anh Gia Lai, a property developer that recently completed a secondary listing in London, are among the best-run companies, say local fund managers.
Vietnam moved up 10 places in the World Bank’s 2011 global ranking on the ease of doing business – to 78th out of 183 economies. But levels of transparency and disclosure still trail behind developed markets, particularly outside the top few listed companies.
The International Finance Corporation, the private sector development arm of the World Bank, concluded in its most recent review that “corporate governance in Vietnam is at the rudimentary stage and ripe for improvement”. The IFC noted that “corporate governance practice in Vietnamese companies is more driven by compliance with regulatory requirements than commitment to a higher practice of sound governance”.
As in many Asian countries, corporate culture is based on personal relationships. It is not always easy for businesses, especially those backed by foreign investors, to maintain good relations with local and central government officials, who are steeped in the secretive ways of the ruling Communist party. But it is a prerequisite for success in this one-party state.
“It is challenging to establish relationships that work within a system that is still in its infancy,” says Anthony Jolly, director of Midway Metals, which makes export-quality stainless steel for yachts and kitchen fittings at a factory 30 miles south of Hanoi.
As a foreign investor, you may find it easier if you go it alone to ensure that your business is run properly and quality standards are upheld, he says. “But if you have no local connections or relationships, your progress will be stifled.”
Six years after it set up in Vietnam, Midway employs 90 people. Mr Jolly hopes to increase turnover to $5m in 2012, up from $2.5m this year.
The secret of his success is his wife, he says. “She is Vietnamese and she has been in the business with me from the start. If you do not have Vietnamese eyes, your investment will probably be down by 30 per cent from the beginning.”
With a fast-growing domestic market and a cheap labour force – average factory workers’ wages of about $100 a month are around a third of the level in southern China – other small and medium-sized businesses are looking for opportunities here.
But Mr Jolly urges them to be careful. “If you are an SME wanting to invest, you have to do a huge amount of due diligence because there is a lot of murky water and it can be hard to figure out what is going on,” he says. “My advice is to consult experienced expatriates who have been here for more than 10 years.”
Mr Leitzinger agrees that those who simply move western executives with little regional experience into the country and try to apply models from abroad will probably fail. “Foreigners cannot come in here and expect to be as effective and get the same return on investment as they would elsewhere,” he says.
Likewise, local companies looking to go global need a more international perspective, says Mr Vu, who has brought in Bain & Co, the global management consultancy, to help him achieve his grand vision for Trung Nguyen. “It is critical to choose partners who share your vision and philosophy and will stick with you for the long term,” he says.
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